Russia’s War on Ukraine: The Brutal Impasse!

Pounded shopping centers and burnt-out apartments and fleeing women, children and the aged from the war-affected zones to the neighboring countries are what on the 56^th day of the Russian invasion greet the citizens of this once beautiful city, Kyiv of Ukraine. And, as its citizens are taking shelter in the metro stations, its armed forces along with volunteers—much against the expectations of Russia and even the defense intelligence of the Western countries—are still bravely resisting the Russian invasion. 

Amidst this, Ukrainian officials gave an indication in the Istanbul talks to discuss about neutrality for Ukraine against the guarantee of the five permanent UN Security Council Members, viz., the US, Russia, France, China, and Britain along with Germany, Poland, Turkey, and Israel—all in the anxiety to halt Russia’s invasion of their country. They have even proposed to separate and postpone for 15 years negotiations on what it calls “the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and Crimea.” 

In a way this offer of Ukraine not to join NATO or host foreign bases in its territory enables Putin to claim that he has successfully stalled NATO’s expansion to a Slavic country and ensured that Ukraine remained a buffer zone. But the expectation of Ukraine from the proposed guarantors to accept a legally binding duty to defend Ukraine by sending their own forces should anyone attack it, may not be palatable for Russia. However, nothing has so far been heard from President Putin himself, except for the Russian negotiators agreeing to examine the proposals. 

It is also equally not yet clear if the countries from which Ukraine sought guarantees in return for its maintaining neutrality would agree to undertake such a guarantee, for it would mean going to war with Russia if it encroaches on Ukraine again. Nevertheless, the current proposal of Ukraine is certain to ignite discussions among the countries, for such treaty commitments call for ratification by their respective legislatures. 

Of course, there are a couple of tricky issues/pitfalls in the proposal: the first and foremost issue is how to resolve the annexation of Crimea and other areas of Ukraine that Russia currently occupied. Secondly, Ukraine President, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the peace deal must be approved in a referendum by the Ukrainians, which appears to be a difficult proposition to accomplish, for after having the people fought so boldly to defend their country for this long and witnessing the kind of damage caused that their people and cities were subjected to, would they agree to such a concession?   

Here it is also worth bearing in mind by both the warring countries and the NATO and EU countries that Russia, owing to the stiff resistance offered by Ukraine, could not achieve its goals of invading Ukraine; nor Ukraine could get the military assistance—offering ‘no-flying zone’ and supply of combat aircraft and advance weaponry —that it sought from the Western countries. Ironically, while Ukraine is facing the brunt of the war all alone, these NATO and the EU countries are staring at this brutal impasse and the resulting decimation of Ukraine as helpless bystanders. 

“A bad peace”, says a Russian proverb, “is better than a good quarrel”. This wise counsel should prevail upon Russia to open an honest dialogue with Ukraine to end the war immediately. The NATO countries should nudge them towards a negotiating table, for there is an urgent need to wriggle out of this brutal impasse. And, for a truly substantive negotiation to progress, all those countries that share democratic values must in the meanwhile sustain their financial support and supply of defense equipment to Ukraine to protect itself from the onslaught.   

All the agencies that are one way or other involved in the crisis must also realize that a prolonged war will also hurt those who are not directly involved in it, for it can cause lasting damage to the world economy. Inflation is already raising its ugly head all over the world. The rise in commodity prices and the soaring oil and wheat prices are enough to cause fiscal pressures in many countries. The collapsing trade growth is certain to worsen the growth in developing countries that was already hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Global supply chains are once again disrupted. The resulting pressure is certain to push the developing countries into a debt trap.

Therefore, the crisis calls for an immediate cease-fire from Russia. And the rest to nudge these two countries to take forward the negotiations, however difficult it might be, to a meaningful end.