COP 28: Certain Programmes Call for Harder Pursuit

 

Way back on December 12, 2015, when the world’s community of nations had at last come up with a blueprint in Paris to address the threat posed by the most calamitous effects of climate change—ambitious plans were drawn to cut the greenhouse gasses enough to hold the rise in global temperature to well below 2⁰ C, and ideally just 1.5^o C from pre-industrial levels —everyone raised to their feet cheering in euphoria. At it, electronic media even proclaimed: “This is the end of fossil fuels.”

Encouragingly, following the Paris Agreement, the responses from the Western world looked promising as coal-fired power projects were scrapped. Electric cars and green energy have mushroomed all around giving faint hope that the end of fossil fuel growth is not far off. Alas! This didn’t however last for long. Reports indicate that record levels of coal was fired last year. The consumption of fossil fuels is reported to be at a record level this year.

Over it, the latest data released from Copernicus—an EU climate-monitoring service— reveals that the year 2023 was the hottest ever recorded. It put the average global temperature for 2023 at 1.48^o C above the pre-industrial average. Much of the heat ran for about six record-breaking months. The main reason for this warming is human greenhouse gas emissions. El Nino, a natural climate cycle, had, of course, further amplified it. It is further feared that this could make 2024 still hotter.

According to the 2052 Climate Change City Index developed by Nestpick, a range of high- and low-income cities stand exposed to the risk of rising sea-level damage. The list is headed by Bangkok at the top with Amsterdam, Shenzhen, and Dubai also ranking high. As extreme weather events are expected to become more intense and frequent, the number of cities exposed to extreme heat is expected to triple by 2030. This is likely to result in huge human and economic costs. This would be felt more in African and Asian cities.

Owing to increased economic activities and the resultant rise in population, the ‘urban heat island effect’—the phenomena of urban cities becoming hotter than villages due to heat-trapping and emissions from buildings — could also be exacerbated. So, it is feared that millions of impoverished urban dwellers from these developing countries would be exposed to the risk of flooding, sunstrokes, and famine. According to an estimate made by C40—a network of city mayors—climate-change-related flooding and drought could cost the world’s major cities about $ 194 bn annually.

As the Paris Climate Agreement’s goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to well below 2⁰ C, and ideally just 1.5^o C from pre-industrial levels potentially slipping out of accomplishment, such vulnerable cities are expected to step-change their resilience efforts. Yet, except for a few cities that have taken up activities such as greening, many cities have not initiated adequate measures. Unless cities wake up to the risk by undertaking greening of cities and retrofitting aged infrastructure, the urban economic powerhouses are sure to face increasing strain which could ultimately lead to high economic costs.

Amidst these threatening risks overpowering us, negotiators assembled at the COP28 hoisted by a petrostate, Dubai under the stewardship of a fossil-fuel CEO, had succeeded in getting the support of 118 governments to triple global renewable-energy capacity and double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. Another good news for climate activists is: 22 governments pledged to triple global nuclear-energy capacity by 2050.

Although the focus is more on reducing the emission of carbon dioxide, reduction in the emission of methane gas is considered responsible for 45% of the planetary warming of this decade. In this context, the long-awaited announcement by the US Environment Protection Agency on December 2 to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by around 80% over 15 years, is quite laudable. Simultaneously, around 50 oil gas companies, including ExxonMobil, Shell, Saudi Aramco, and ADNOC pledged to eliminate methane emissions. It is hoped that this promise will turn into reality soon.  

All these pledges sound good, but the haunting fear is that the climate crisis cannot be tackled unless its financing is transformed. It is in everybody’s knowledge that the global South faces double jeopardy: one, countries in the global south are disproportionately affected by the consequences of climate change that was largely caused by the historical emissions of the global north; and two, they lack funds to address the threat posed by climate change.

Thus, the countries in the global south face a huge financial gap: They need about $ 4.3 tn by 2030 to escape from the worst impacts of climate change. Secondly, the quality of finance plays an equally important role. Thirdly, such spending must be looked at as an investment, but not a cost. For, the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of action. So, if we wish to realize meaningful progress on the mitigation of climate change, we must move away from being reactive to a proactive state where financing the fight is well taken care of by the Western world to ensure a just green future.

Before concluding, a word about ‘solar geoengineering”, also called solar radiation management. Scientists have come up with a proposal to lower global temperatures by reducing the amount of light absorbed by Earth by stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) or whitening clouds over the ocean. SAI is expected to reflect sunlight into space and hence it is expected to be effective at slowing global warming within years. It however entails certain concerns: SAI could deplete stratospheric ozone, may lead to acid rain, and most importantly, it may drive resources away from mitigation. It therefore calls for an in-depth study to ascertain its pros and cons and also public perceptions of such interventions.

That said, we must first appreciate that the planet’s vital signs are fast heading the wrong way. Hence, every effort toward decarbonization must be prioritized. However hard its pursuit might be, a worldwide campaign must be launched to mobilize resources, both financial and technological, to avert catastrophe, for our very existence rests on it.