The 2006 war in Iraq aided democrats in wresting both houses of Congress from George Bush. It is after 20 years, in 2026, that the Republican President, Mr Trump, lost both houses to Democrats due to the Iran war. Starting in the Midwest, the rout ran southward, dragging the fate of Republicans along with it.
Agonised
by the rising cost of living, high fuel prices, and the impact of high trade
tariffs on agriculture sector and perhaps the way the US is being stewarded by
the present Republican regime, voters even in conservative bastions—Kansas,
Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas—who, two years ago, put Mr Trump
in white House for a second term, dramatically turned toward Democrats.
How
else can one explain the victory of a Democrat, Adam Hamilton, to the Senate
from Kansas—a state that had elected exclusively Republican senators for the
last 94 years? Or, take South Carolina— a State Mr Trump won by nearly 18
points just two years ago— elected Ms Annie Andrews, a paediatrician, over Mr
Trump’s hand-picked Republican candidate..
The 2026
midterm elections indeed turned out several unprecedented milestones in
representation: Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, won a bitter race in Michigan,
defeating Republican Mike Rogers to become the first Muslim elected to the U.S. Senate
in history; New Hampshire elected Chris Pappas, the first out
gay man to the Senate; Peggy Flanagan, the first native American woman, became
the Senator from Minnesota; and a 29-year-old Democrat, Melat Kiros, became the
first Gen Z woman in Congress.
Another noteworthy outcome of the mid-term elections
is: Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat from the South, became Georgia’s first
Black woman governor. Equally interesting is the victory of Gina Hinojosa over
the incumbent Republican, making her the first Latina governor of Texas.
Democrat Amy Acton defeated high-profile Republican Vivek Ramaswamy to become
Ohio’s first female governor.
Niceties aside, the outcome of the midterm elections
poses a challenge to Democrats. The Democratic candidates campaigned across the
country against Mr Trump’s handling of the economy. They placed ‘affordability’
concerns at the centre of their campaign.
But
once settled in the House in January 2027, they will find themselves with no
direct levers to bring down prices, which have indeed become a drag on many
Americans’ budgets. And we know the effect of a party’s failure to fulfil
campaign promises. Incidentally, it is this very inability of the present
Republican administrative setup that led to their rout in the midterm
elections.
At
best, Democrats may be able to hold Trump’s administration accountable for
corruption charges by initiating investigations. But on the critical issue of ‘affordability’,
they can do very little to actually lower prices beyond drafting bills designed
to send a message about their commitment to campaign promises. This policy
limitation may pose a major challenge for the Democrats in the 2028
presidential campaign.
Democratic
senators can, of course, block Mr Trump’s nominees, including the US Supreme
Court justices, should a vacancy arise. But that is not what matters most to
the voters. As the Democratic Party’s Senate minority leader said, “Americans
voted for a change, and now Democrats must deliver”.
Reacting
to the poll results, Mr Trump, against the apprehensions of many, accepted the verdict
and congratulated Democrats, saying, “They did a good job. They have been
looking for this one for 11 years, and they finally got it.” He even said that
he would work with Democrats on issues such as immigration—a good omen—but at
the same time he also threatened to veto any “insane” bills they passed.
That
aside, in his usual style, Mr Trump —who asked voters in the campaign to
pretend he was on the ballot— deflated the blame for the failure at the polls from
his shoulders by declaring that it was not he who was on the ballot and that if
he were, “we would have won in a landslide”.
The
new remake of the Senate may not make much difference to India. But in some
quarters, there is hope that with the weakened political footing of the President
and the new House of Congress swinging in an anti-tariff direction, India may
be able to negotiate for a favourable, rule-based trade agreement. But Mr Trump,
being what he is, may not show much enthusiasm to sign the Bilateral Trade Agreement
with India that quickly and smoothly, especially when he has nothing much to
gain out of it.
However,
if the Senate succeeds in pushing the White House toward a diplomatic exit from
this "costly war of choice" to provide immediate relief to global
energy markets and domestic inflation, India could breathe easier, for a
restored free flow of crude and gas from the Gulf would significantly ease its
inflationary pressures. It would also ease the pressure on the rupee. But the
big question remains: Will Mr Trump yield to Democratic pressure?
Similarly,
with a Democratic Congress at the helm, India expects that immigration policies
will be shaped by structured debates and a predictable and stable framework
rather than abrupt, tweet-based rule changes. Yet, this too could turn out to
be wishful thinking, for Mr Trump has already aggressively signalled his intent
to use his veto power.
So, global
geopolitics is set to run through an uncertainty corridor at least until the new
Congress officially convenes in Washington in January 2027.
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