Pandemic to Endemic: It Doesn’t Mean Exit of Virus

 

People are throwing away their masks. Government’s mandates are easing. Everyone is freely moving around. People are socializing happily. Crowds have swelled up all around. Even people played Holi in gay abandon. So, it’s no wonder watching this emerging merriness, if someone raises the obvious question: Where is Covid-19?

But the fact remains that the more contagious sub-variant of Omicron, BA.2 subvariant is circulating amidst the loosening restrictions/new-found freedom and cases are reported to be rising globally. China is reported to have locked down many of its big cities to contain its largest Covid-19 outbreak since the start of the pandemic.

True, the disease, that killed 6 million people according to official statistics globally, is not causing much concern today for those who are vaccinated and even boosted, but specialists warn that the virus is still dangerous for those who have had no access to jabs or those who had preferred not to get vaccinated.

Although cases, hospitalization and deaths due to the virus are stabilized affording a kind of respite that was very much missing during the Delta wave, specialists warn that declaring an end to the pandemic is very much an iffy proposition, given the proven ability of the Coronavirus to surprise us. Some virologists are even warning us about an inevitable emergence of new variants sooner or later that could be more lethal than Omicron.

Dr Howard Koh, Harvey V. Fineberg Professor of the Practice of Public Health Leadership at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said: “It is so tempting to just try to forget about [the Pandemic] and move on, but we can’t do that… We need to remain vigilant.”

Dr Bill Hang, Associate Professor of Epidemiology at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health states that “the end of the pandemic phase [is] defined as much by human behaviour as by the dynamics [of the virus]”.

So, what these experts mean is: that today, society is closer than ever to calling Covid an endemic, but endemic doesn’t mean the exit of the virus; it only means that the disease is regularly found and very common in a region or among a particular group. Therefore, we cannot throw caution to the wind. For, there are still many unknowns that have a direct impact on us, the public.

The first one is: the duration of the immunity. The current evidence indicates that the natural and as well as vaccine-induced immunity wanes over time—of course, more so against infection. Similarly, the extent of waning immunity against Omicron is yet not known fully, except to say that those who received booster doses of vaccine may enjoy medium-term protection. At the same time, the booster uptake is also not that significant in the country.

Secondly, it must also be realised that many characteristics of the virus such as its pathogenesis and epidemiology are still not known clearly. Equally unknown is the risk and impact of the long Covid. It is still not known if vaccinations protect people from long Covid. Same is the case with regard to intervention measures, if any, to mitigate the long Covid. Similarly, causes for long Covid in children and its effects on them are still not clear.

In the light of these realities, there is a need to strike a balance between public safety and personal liberty. However, as a first step in this direction, government must keep a system engaged in reading genetic code of virus variants continuously to serve as an early warning system for the health authorities to isolate such cases immediately so as to contain the spread of new variants. There is also a need to open virology laboratories in every State capital for speeding up of identification of the viruses/emergence of new variants of virus and to initiate arresting measures with no loss of time. The second step is speeding up of vaccinating all age groups to build up herd immunity soon in the country. Third, testing and surveillance shall be increased to the level needed to get a dependable data for scientists/policymakers to make decisions.

There are also countries that, adopting a zero-Covid policy, have constrained the development of herd immunity. It would therefore be a potentially fertile ground for incubating and releasing new variants. So, the free movement of people from such countries is likely to spread the new variants to the rest of the world.

Then turning to the public, it must be said that we have an equal responsibility, if not more, in containing the spread of the disease. But unfortunately, more and more people have given up their Covid-appropriate behaviour perhaps, presuming that health risks of Omicron are not significant enough to warrant avoiding crowds, maintaining safe distance and masking or because of their vaccine status, their youth, or desire to move on to old normal.

Though the optimism brought out by Omicron about the pandemic waning is understandable, the break in behavioral adjustments is certainly an undesirable development. For, the way the virus has so far mutated releasing four variants within a short span of two years, makes it suicidal to think of no new variant scenario in the future.

So, what is needed is to stay correctly informed, protect the vulnerable and be conscious of the hand-hygiene.

Wishing on this Ugadi day good health to you and yours ….