The India Meteorological
Department announced last week its prediction that during July, below-normal
rainfall is likely across most parts of the country – 94 percent of the
long-period average of 280.4 mm – except the North-West and North-East regions,
as well as East-Central India and the eastern peninsular region, where normal
rainfall is likely. This is a double whammy, for the southwest monsoon of 2026
started with just 60 percent of its normal rainfall in June, the fifth-lowest
since 1901, delaying the Kharif sowings across the country. Reports also indicate
that the sowing of red gram, green gram and black gram in parts of Karnataka
and Maharashtra has already been affected.
This predicted below-normal
rainfall in July, closely followed by a 40 percent deficiency in June’s normal
rainfall, is certain to affect reservoir replenishments and water availability in
several parts of India, including major cities. Reports indicate that water
levels in the 166 reservoirs have already dropped from 50.45 billion cubic
meters to 48.45 billion cubic meters. Further, a poor monsoon impacts the
economy in three ways: it directly affects agricultural output, it hits the
rural economy, denting aggregate demand, and it can also threaten to push up
food prices, causing inflation.
Adding to these concerns, the World
Meteorological Organization and the United States National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration have confirmed the emergence of El Niño conditions
in the Pacific. Sea-surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific Ocean are
reported to be well beyond El Niño thresholds. Reports indicate that it is
likely to continue till early spring and will intensify with time. All global
models are indeed forecasting that it may become one of the most powerful El Niño
events since 1950.
This news is triggering more fear,
for El Niño is historically known to disrupt the southwest monsoon rainfall
over India. However, there is a slight ray of hope: if the Indian Ocean Dipole
(IOD), which is currently neutral, turns positive, it can bring more moisture
to India, often resulting in monsoon rain even in an El Niño year. The IMD
hopes that the IOD will turn positive in September, and if it does, it might
mitigate the adverse impacts of a strong El Niño to some extent.
Nonetheless, amidst these
uncertainties, the immediate concern is farmers and farming, particularly the
vulnerable rainfed farming. Deficient rainfall in several regions, particularly
during the critical August and September period, adversely affects standing
kharif crops, which in turn sets in motion the vicious cycle of poor
agricultural output, rising food prices, falling rural income, and a slide in
overall economic growth. True, today, agriculture and allied activities may
account for a meager 18 percent of national GDP, but a significant proportion
of the Indian population still depends on agriculture for its survival. The
Reserve Bank of India also identified an adverse southwest monsoon as one of
the principal domestic risks to both growth and inflation. We have also seen
how deficient rainfall and high temperatures owing to El Niño during 2023-24
exerted persistent pressure on food prices.
Of course, there is no cause for
alarm at this stage, as the government is said to hold wheat and rice stocks of
about 122 million tonnes – double the annual requirement under free food grain
schemes – and around five million tonnes of pulses stock. So, what matters most
now is managing the risk of localized stresses caused by deficient rainfall in the
rural ecosystem by roping in all arms of the government – from the central to the
state governments to district-level authorities – to draw district-level
contingency plans to address weather uncertainty and execute them effectively
in time.
The agencies implementing these
plans must first design alternative cropping schemes in consultation with
agricultural scientists to tide over the prevailing drought conditions, and
also be ready with a sufficient stock of seeds of such select crops known for
drought resistance so that farmers can catch up with the shortened growing
season. The next in importance is the affordability of farmers for such quick
switchovers to sow another crop. Having already spent their resources once on the
failed first sowings, small and marginal farmers may find it difficult to
purchase seed afresh unless timely financial support is available. So, banks should
also be included in these contingency plans. Thirdly, farmers must be guided to
practice moisture-conservation methods to minimize stress on growing crops. We
are today better equipped than before in terms of scientific inputs and
financial resilience to manage drought conditions. So, what matters more in
minimizing the adverse impact of deficient monsoon rainfall is district-specific
policy preparedness and effective execution of contingency plans through
coordinated action across institutions.
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