President Trump could smartly find
a way out of the Iran war, albeit temporarily. After bombing Iran jointly with
Israel for 26 days and killing around 1,443 Iranian civilians besides their
high ranking leaders, Trump declared a pause: He postponed attacks on Iran’s
power plants—36 hours after issuing a 48-hour warning to Iran to open Strait of
Hormuz, and after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi said that the Strait
is open for all the vessels other than those of the US and its allies—for five
days for Iran to negotiate a deal.
A week before that, Trump
declared victory, stating that the US and Israeli strikes obliterated Iran’s
defence capabilities. Yet, Iran continued to fire missiles at Israel and Gulf
countries while exercising its full control over Hormuz as a bargaining chip.
Indeed, since the beginning of the war, Iran has ignored the US threats: It
responded to the US escalation with its counter-escalation.
When the US bombed Kharg Island,
Iran fired missiles at American bases in the Gulf region. When Israel targeted
Iran’s South Pars gas field, Iran soon after hit energy facilities across the
Gulf region, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant. Immediately after Israel
targeted Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, Iran fired ballistic missiles on its two
southern towns close to its nuclear facility, causing extensive damage.
According to the Israeli Ministry, 116 people were injured in Arad and 64 in
Dimona—some seriously.
Targeting Iran’s missile
production, navy and nuclear facilities to degrade their capabilities by
intense bombing, US thought that it could obliterate Iran’s might without resorting
to a long-drawn ground war. Along with the intense combat stance, the US
appears to have kept the door open to negotiations—aides like Jared Kushner and
Steve Witkoff appear to be negotiating through back channels such as Pakistan to
make a deal. Reports indicate that a 15-point action plan was sent to Iran
through Pakistan/Egypt/Turkey to end the war. The current ‘pause’ declared by
Trump signals such a possibility. Reports indicate that thousands of Marines
are already on the way to the Gulf, indicating the probability of ground
operations, if necessary. Through such coercion tactics US is perhaps hoping to
get a diplomatic deal to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capabilities and hand over the
enriched uranium to the IAEA.
But, Iran is denying the US
claims that negotiations are underway. Its President, Masoud Pezeshkian, however,
indicated a few conditions for ending the war: Guarantees against future
aggression, reparations for infrastructure damage and recognition of Iran’s
‘legitimate rights’, which perhaps might mean relief from sanctions (?). Interestingly,
US has already eased sanctions on Iran’s oil: Its treasury department issued a
30-day sanctions waiver for the sale and delivery of Iranian crude oil and
petroleum products that were already loaded onto ships as of March 20, 2026, but
not against fresh orders, essentially to stabilise global oil prices.
Intriguingly, all these
developments plus the domestic compulsions of warring parties indicate that the
time has ripen for both the US and Iran to move away from combat and embrace diplomacy
to settle the conflict. The US President has his own compulsions: the mounting
cost of war and its impact on growth: S&P global reported that business
activity in March slowed to an 11-month low after the war, effect on treasury
and bond-yields, effect on stock market, rise in domestic gasoline prices, and
importantly, the forthcoming elections to Congress will all call for no further
escalations in war. His approval rates, too, are low. Opening up of the Strait
of Hormuz is still posing a challenge.
In a similar vein, Iran has
already suffered a lot by virtue of sanctions and on top of that, the present
war has caused enough damage for its people to turn sour about its
consequences. The regime may not be able to suppress the people’s anger at the
war-inflicted suffering forever. The ill-will generated by its missile attack
on neighbouring Gulf countries may isolate it forever. There is thus a need for
Iran to find alternatives to war to rebuild its nation.
Amidst these developments, Israel
remains a sore point, for it currently does not appear to be fully aligned with
the US objectives, as is revealed by its continued raids on Tehran and Lebanon.
It cannot treat Lebanon as Gaza Strip and continue with its raids on Southern
Lebanon to eliminate Hezbollah from its neighbourhood—rather, it may have to
work for its goal through Lebanon government.
Once the US and Iran come to the
negotiating table, the whole scenario may change. Israel, though unhappy about
not accomplishing its twin objectives of eliminating Hezbollah from its
neighbourhood and regime change in Iran, cannot but toe its line, for it is heavily
dependent on the US for weapons and intelligence. Similarly, Saudi Arabia,
which is presently reported to be pressing the US to go the whole hog to put
Iran in its place, but once the US arrives at a deal, it may also remain
silent. But the big question is: Trust—trust between the US and Iran. Iran
accuses that twice in the past the US has attacked it while negotiations were in
progress. Everything is thus fluid, but one thing is certain: both have
incurred enough losses, and this alone shall push them to a deal!
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