With free flow of
capital all around the globe and the resultant rise in volumes, the need for
risk identification in Dealing room operations and its management has become
quite imperative. Let us take a look at different types of risks associated
with forex dealing.
1 Open Position Risk
Long/overbought/plus – means bought more
dollars than sold
Short/Oversold/minus – means sold more
dollars than bought
If
one is overbought and currency weakens, one will be able to square up over
bought position by selling the currency at a loss. On the other hand, if one is
oversold and currency hardens, he can only cover it at excess cost i.e. by
incurring loss.
2
Maturity Mismatch Risk
Gaps arising out of
merchant transaction position and other trades pose a mismatch risk. Unmatched
forward maturities may cause loss if forward differentials go against the bank.
3
Credit/Counter Party Risk
It arises out of
failure of the counter party to honour his side of the contract. It also arises
due to Contract Risk: Assume one has sold forward $ to a customer say at
Rs.43.30 per $. Before the contract matures, if the customer fails, the dealer
has to dispose off the earmarked dollars in the market at the going rate even
if it has weakened say to Rs.43.10 per dollar. This is nothing but Replacement
Cost or pre-settlement risk.
There is yet another kind of credit risk
known as Clean Risk: Assume we have sold Euro against $ and accordingly, we
have credited Euro to the Bank A/c – say in Germany and waiting for the German
Bank to deposit Dollars in our New York A/c. Till German Bank credits Dollars
in our New York A/c., we will be running Clean Risk and if, in between the Bank
fails, we have to put up with the loss.
This type of risk, also known as Settlement Risk, may arise in international
transactions owing to time-zone differences.
4
Interest Rate Risk
Owing to adverse
movements in implied interest rates or actual interest rate differentials
relating to foreign currency deposits, forward contracts, currency swaps, FRAs,
etc.
5 Legal Risk
If the contracts are
of a defective nature, they cannot be enforced. This kind of problems are more
under swap deals.
6
Operational Risks
Omissions/commissions
in operational procedures viz. – Dealing & Accounting functions: Follow-up
of dealings and contract confirmation; Settlement of funds; Pipeline
transactions; and Overdue bills and contracts.
7
Sovereign Risk
Risk of
Externalisation: The countries may suddenly impose instructions on free
movement of forex exchanges. It is basically political in nature. This arises
in transactions including banks located in other countries.
2. Management of Dealing Room Risks
Banks, assessing the
risk involved in trading and non-trading activities, usually put in operation a
well-drafted risk management procedure that could be well understood by
Dealers, Back Office staff etc., and execute it with much ease. Such a
mechanism shall assist in effective monitoring and limiting risk prone
activities across the Dealing Room. Some such time-tested
mechanisms are:
2.1
Open Position Risk
Since these positions
are taken at a particular rate, any adverse movement in the rate leads to loss.
To prevent/minimise such losses, banks prescribe various limits consistent with
adequacy of its capital to undertake such activities.
· Day
light Limit – Dealer cannot take a position of more than day light limit
prescribed by the Bank.
· Overnight
Limit – Fixes overnight limit for an open position in each currency – usually
lesser than daylight limits; Global limit for all the currencies put together
is also fixed.
· Cut-loss
Limit – While undertaking transactions, if the rate goes on moving against the
bank, one never knows, where the loss would end. Hence, banks fix a cut-loss-limit.
Irrespective of the Dealer’s view, if the rate moves so adversely that the
resultant loss is equivalent to the limit, the dealer has to liquidate the
position and book loss.
All deals done in the day should be
accounted for against the corresponding limits. The limits when exceeded should
be promptly reported to the Senior Management and got approved. People not
connected with Dealing room operations should constantly monitor compliance
with these limits through timely, accurate and comprehensive MIS.
2.2
Maturity Mismatch Risk
· Individual
Gap Limit (IGL): Bank prescribes limits on mismatch in the currency bought and
sold for a particular month.
· Aggregate
Gap Limit (AGL): Aggregate gap limit for each currency on all the O/B and O/S
positions for various months.
·
Total
Aggregate Gap Limit: Aggregate of all the AGLs in all currencies for dealing
room as a whole.
2.3
Credit Risk
To minimize credit
risk, banks impose exposure limits on customers as well as on other Banks. In
general, separate limits are fixed for spot and forward, the latter being lower
than the spot. In case of Forwards, the limits are prescribed as the maximum
level of the net outstanding Forward contracts.
2.4 Operational Risk
Dealing and execution
functions are separated for early discovery of any transgression of the imposed
limits – by dividing dealing room into front office solely concentrating on
dealings and back office for recording the transactions and pursuing
settlements etc. Systems and procedures are put in place to obtain
‘deal-confirmations’ in time and prompt follow-up for execution of
‘funds-transfer’ instructions. Back office is also entrusted with the
responsibility to monitor export bills and forward contracts for their delivery
in accordance with the tenor.
2.5
Legal Risk
To obviate the risk
involved in enforcing compliance with contractual obligations/securities, banks
usually enter into the following master agreements with counter party
banks/clients:
·
Spot
& Forward Exchange – International foreign Exchange Master Agreement.
·
Foreign
Exchange Options – International Currency Options Market Agreement.
·
All
others – International Swap Dealers’ Association Master Agreement.
Banks also obtain Board Resolutions from
their Corporate Clients, specifically authorising their officials to deal and
execute contracts. Back offices obtain specific confirmation for each
transaction with full details regarding amount, rate, value date, etc., duly
signed by the authorised signatories.
2.6
Sovereign Risks
It is managed by prescribing
limits against each overseas party based on ‘countryrisk’ perceptions.
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